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Russia could “still win” the war in Ukraine, which could last beyond the end of this year, western officials have said.
There had been “some improvement” in their tactics during the new offensive under way in eastern Ukraine that could lead to renewed attacks on Kyiv and Odesa, it was also confirmed.
The security assessment could prompt western powers to speed up delivery of weapons.
On Thursday, America announced it was sending five battalions worth of artillery pieces, numbering 90 guns, to Ukraine, along with 144,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition.
About 76 Russian battalion tactical groups of about 70,000 personnel have launched a broad offensive over a 300-kilometre front in Donbas, with modest success.
“This is a new chapter of the campaign and Putin has clearly failed in meeting his initial pre-war objectives but is still in a position to win,” a western official said.
There was growing evidence that Russian forces had learnt from their failures in earlier operations during which they had suffered about 15,000 dead.
Their forces in Donbas were “narrowing axes of advance” and had resolved problems of command and control.
“That’s led to some improvement in how they’re operating,” a security official told a media briefing. “But it’s not solved all of their problems. They continue to operate in relatively long convoys on single roads and make themselves vulnerable. So, whilst we see some improvement, it is, as yet, not a force transformed.”
The Ukrainians were continuing to fight “in a very smart way” and were willing to “trade a degree of space in open ground to move to areas which are more easily defensible”, which included towns or cities that had proven very hard to attack.
The West appears to be preparing for a long campaign with Russia and the possibility the conflict could last into next year. “We’re now gearing up to sustain our support for Ukraine through a prolonged period of conflict, through perhaps much of the rest of this year, at least, so we have to plan for that eventuality,” an official said.
Asked by The National to expand on the potential for a Russian victory, the official said that if the large concentration of Russian forces was “used intelligently” it could defeat the Ukrainians.
“They might be able to surround and destroy a very significant portion of Ukraine’s armed forces, some of its best forces, and make territorial gains which would then be very difficult to dislodge,” the official said.
“In a really worst-case scenario, they might then be able to look again at whether they could revisit some of their pre-war objectives, potentially renew an attack on Kyiv. Or to or to attempt to take Odesa and deprive the rest of Ukraine from access to the sea,” he said.
“I think that is still something which is potentially within reach if the Russians are successful in the campaign in the Donbas … that is a real possibility.”
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Pro-Russian troops, including fighters of the Chechen special forces unit, survey the destroyed administration building of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters -
A young Ukrainian refugee, one of 71 to board a flight from Moldova, sits on a suitcase after arriving in Bordeaux, France. AFP -
A member of a demining team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine carries an unexploded projectile during mine clearing near Brovary, north-east of Kyiv. AFP -
An armoured convoy of pro-Russian troops presses on in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Reuters -
A worker cleans a statue of the founder of the Soviet Union Vladimir Lenin at Moscow Square in Saint Petersburg, Russia. AFP -
Firefighters battle flames at a warehouse after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
People walk along a street past a missile that stuck in the ground, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Rubizhne, Luhansk region, Ukraine. Reuters -
A man rides his bicycle next to a destroyed Russian tank in Chernihiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A man walks next to a fire after a Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian refugee from Mariupol area, is greeted after arriving in a small convoy that crossed through a territory held by Russian forces, after the opening of a humanitarian corridor, at a registration center for internally displaced people, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier stands during the funeral of his father in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers walk on a destroyed bridge in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainians receive humanitarian aid organised by local volunteers in Irpin. AP -
Volodymyr Lukyanovych, 63, cuts wood to make a fire outside his house in Irpin. His home was destroyed by Russian shelling. AP -
Vova, 10, and his father, Ivan Drahun, look at the grave of his mother, Maryna, during her funeral in Bucha. AP -
Sergei, 11, waits his turn to receive donated food during an aid humanitarian distribution in Bucha. AP -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and European Council President Charles Michel attend a news conference after their meeting in Kyiv. AP -
People pay their respects during the funeral in Kyiv for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Karas, who died fighting Russian troops. AP -
Alexandra Kusminova pets her cat, named Mouse, in a restaurant in Dnipro, Ukraine, that was transformed into a shelter for those fleeing the war. AP -
A woman reads a book as she lays on a bed in the shelter. AP -
City workers repair a war-damaged road in Bucha. Getty Images -
The village council and police department buildings destroyed by Russian shelling in Lymany, just outside Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Local residents receive bottled water from a truck, since there has been no running water for more than a week in Mykolaiv. Getty Images -
A destroyed car on the road between Kyiv and Chernihiv. EPA -
A man looks at a burned APC in Yahidne, Chernihiv. EPA -
A man holds part of a missile in Yahidne. EPA -
A resident clears up a house that was occupied by Russian soldiers in Yahidne. EPA -
Local youth Vladyslav, 17, inspects the basement of the school building in Yahidne. EPA -
A local resident walks on the street in Yahidne. EPA -
Local residents speak on the street next to war ruins. EPA -
A destroyed garage in Ivanivka. EPA -
A man looks at bombs that litter a field in Ivanivka. EPA -
Natalia and her daughter climb a ladder, passing over a destroyed bridge in Kyiv. EPA
While the Russian advance won’t be “rapid” if the estimated 30,000 of Ukraine’s most capable forces were surrounded in Donbas but the invaders would “grind them down over time,” he said. “That would be enough for Putin to be able to claim it as a win.”
But Russian forces were still suffering “significant losses” and it was “inconceivable that it will not suffer more”.
The official stressed that the invasion had been a “strategic blunder” by the Kremlin, which had united the West and led to a rapid increase in defence budgets in light of the new threat. It would also take considerable time for Russia to rearm after it suffered sizeable losses.
The assessment of a Russian victory is likely to give greater impetus for western powers to provide Ukraine with more advanced weaponry in terms of warplanes, missiles and radar, military analysts have told The National.
